Quirky Quests
Reflection · · 5 min read

A reflection on luck

A reflection on luck
You are so lucky!! - Yes, I've been working on this since I was a child.

Beginner's luck

As with the previous reflections, I aim to understand better what certain words mean and what they hide behind the scenes. Today, let's focus on luck: the four-leaf clover, the horseshoe, the albatross, or even acorns, for others.

Usually, I prefer to remove any intangible items from a conversation. It doesn't help me think of them, nor does it influence the result behind the scenes - so less energy is spent in the wrong places. But there are things that people attribute to luck, and I want to understand what those are. Whenever industries are created on concepts like this, there is always something to learn from them. 

Year over year, the market size of companies leveraging luck is increasing. Whether government-owned (lotteries) or privately owned (casinos, gambling sites), it's impressive how steady their growth is. It's hard to believe that these companies are "just lucky" consistently for a significant amount of time - they might be doing something different. I'm not interested in becoming better at Alea-based (chance) games, so let's focus on what we can do to become more "lucky" as an individual.

A stroke of luck

So why do we want luck? Why do we have specific actions that would improve or maintain our luck - the so-called rituals? Why are we afraid of a black cat, or why do we want lucky charms on our person? We care about it because we want to leverage luck to have a sense of agency in a generally uncertain and uncontrollable aspect of life. With it, we can influence our next set of cards being dealt, the following resources we receive, improving our lives.

Some observations from me about luck:

  • For me, it's better to try and learn the rules of the universe than assume there is a higher entity that can influence my luck. I should be in control.
  • My ego often influences my thinking. "That was pure luck; he didn't deserve it." or "He failed; if only he were more prepared." Winning is far more plausible than losing.
  • I am more lucky playing games I've mastered than playing for the first time.
  • I get closer to my goals when I'm not keeping all my eggs in one basket. It seems like luck increases gradually with multiple opportunities.
  • We generally fall into two categories: those who accept and expect luck and the others who reject the notion entirely. It is hard to believe people are in the middle - whether we interact and influence it or not is a binary decision.
  • We generally aren't good at understanding randomness. We can be conditioned with much work via feedback to generate results indistinguishable from true randomness.

Don't push your luck

And I've seen luck present itself when influenced in some ways: 

  • Some luck is pure; it's accidental. It comes even though we don't do anything to influence its apparition.
  • Some luck is influenced by motion. Being the person always starting something, being present at events, and so on generates motion around you. And with more motion, more chaos can ensue, and more opportunities present themselves. Stay curious and act!
  • Some luck is influenced by being perceptive and insightful of hidden opportunities. Being the right person at the right time. See what others don't; leverage it moving forward!
  • Some luck is influenced by your context. Investing time in activities outside your comfort zone teaches you different angles and creative ways to solve problems. Curate the box you live in to enable you to think outside it. Try to move left and right, not just forward and backward.

Some people have all the luck

From now on, I will use the concept of position to refer to luck, specifically to be in a position to experience luck. Let's see how we can influence our position for better decisions. I will share some ideas and actions that can put us closer to our results, so fair warning: this might also not work, much like the rituals we sometimes do.

  1. You need to accept that reality doesn't always follow your plans. So, you need to understand your risk tolerance and the risk that your decision introduces. If the risk is higher than your tolerance, what do you do? Some viable strategies:
    1. Do extra planning to understand better the likelihood or impact of the risks. You can always introduce contingency plans, but they come with costs. Recalculate the risk now; is it better?
    2. Reduce the costs of the decision, thus also reducing the rewards. Independent of the result, this should also enable you to reflect more on how to make future decisions better.
    3. Decide to skip the decision. Make sure to understand the reason; if it makes sense, don't regret it. Saying "no" means missing one thing only. Saying "yes" means missing everything else.
  2. To improve your position, you can either follow opportunities or prevent threats. Both of these strategies work; you need to see which fits better in your situation. So, you can either take calculated risks in the center of your circle of competence or skip a decision entirely in the border of your circle. You can either search for brilliance or avoid being stupid. Be energic and have a bias for action; be in motion as the world around you is.
  3. You can be in a better position just by being present and surrounded by various people and interactions. You should get to know everybody at the party: the rich, the poor, the famous, the humble, the pleasant, the friendly, and even the cranky. People move things in your way, not only friends and family, but they need to know what you do and what you want to do. Depending on your career, it might mean going to that party or meeting that friend with whom you constantly reschedule a coffee, joining a gym, or that book club. More connections and more exposure to ideas and patterns, all to help you move forward. Be curious about the world so the world is curious of you!
  4. A good plan for a repeating decision is one that constantly adapts. Even for the same area, your position does change, and your edge is only temporary. With these adaptations, you should remove any part of randomness. Summarize actions and results, link apparently unrelated experiences, and see how you were part of the trajectory of success.
  5. Step laterally and step often. Have "weird" and eccentric hobbies. Travel where you can barely see a road. Catch up on the uniqueness of your life and see how you can apply it to your decision-making. 

Some quotes about luck:

  • Luck has a way of evaporating when you lean on it. - Brandon Mull.
  • Wayne's a little attached to that hat," Waxillium said. "He thinks it's lucky." Wayne: "It is lucky. I ain't never died while wearing that hat. - Brandon Sanderson.
  • Lucky people make their own luck. - Frank Sonnenberg.
  • God does not play dice with the universe! - Albert Einstein.
  • Chance favors the prepared mind - Louis Pasteur.
  • I have never heard of anyone stumbling on something sitting down - Charles Kettering.

Some resources that inspired this reflection:

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